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A Review of Winter 2018-2019

Seasonal weather forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center made in fall 2018 for the winter of 2018-19 were generally indicating warm and dry conditions, in line with the expected El Niño development. 

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Kona Storms and Winter Weather in WA State

As detailed here, the month of February 2019 will long be remembered for its snowy weather, especially in the lowlands of western Washington. We are not the only place that has experienced some unusual conditions – here we direct our attention to Hawaii, and in particular the “Kona” storm that slammed the state during the second week of the month. 

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The Return of Warm Water to the NE Pacific

The intense marine heat wave (MHW) of 2014-16 in the NE Pacific, aka the “Blob”, received a great deal of attention and deservedly so. When relatively warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) emerged in the Gulf of Alaska in late summer/early fall 2018, both those monitoring the North Pacific atmosphere ocean climate system, and the media, began speculating whether a new MHW might be developing. 

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El Niño Flooding: Flashback to November 2006

The “El Niño watch” issued by the Climate Prediction Center is still in effect, with the expectation that a weak or moderate El Niño will develop this winter. Appropriately, media reports have focused on the increased odds of a warmer and drier winter due to El Niño, with the warmer than usual temperatures being more likely to occur. 

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