Late February Climate Outlook

What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest?
Wetter than normal conditions expected in March. A warm start to the month is likely.
The Climate Prediction Center’s monthly outlook for March 2026 shows 40-50% chance of above normal precipitation statewide. 

Just how big were the December 2025 floods?

This month we’d like to take a break from the news about the snow drought and look back at flooding that happened in December. Many agencies, utilities, and other managers are taking stock of the flooding now that it’s behind us. 

Early February Climate Outlook

Key Messages:

La Niña conditions remain in place, but a return to neutral conditions is expected by March.

The February CPC outlook indicates warmer than normal temperatures are most likely statewide with slightly elevated chances of wetter than normal conditions across the northern half of the state. 

January 2026 Climate Summary

Key Messages: 

January was the 12th warmest January on record since at least 1895. Temperatures were around 2-5°F above normal for nearly all areas of the state.
Precipitation was below normal across most of the state and ranked as the 22nd driest January on record since at least 1895 statewide. 

January 2026 Snowpack and Drought Summary

Key Messages: 

As of February 2, statewide snowpack is well below normal near 55% of median. 

Water year precipitation remains above normal in most of the Cascades, but warm storms throughout the season and January’s dry spell both contributed to the current snowpack deficits.  

January Notable Weather Events

Key Messages: 

Active weather brought a brief period of much-needed heavy mountain snowfall at the start of the month.
A strong and persistent ridge of high pressure then brought an extended streak of dry weather.  

December 8-11, 2025 Heavy Rainfall and Flooding: Historical Context and a Note on Snow Drought

Event recap 
Major flooding impacted western Washington and the eastern Cascades last month. Impacts included numerous washouts and landslides on roadways including a weeks-long shutdown of US-2 and lane closures on I-90. 

Early January Climate Outlook

Key Messages

La Niña conditions remain in place, with a 75% chance of neutral conditions by January-March. El Niño conditions are becoming more likely in the extended outlook, with nearly equal chances of neutral or El Niño conditions for the June-August period and minimal chances of La Niña persisting.  

December 2025 Climate Summary

Key Messages: 

Averaged statewide, December 2025 was the warmest December on record. January -December 2025 is tied with 1934 as  the second warmest year on record in Washington.

Averaged statewide, December ranked as the 5th wettest December on record, with most portions of the state receiving much above normal precipitation.  

December 2025 Snowpack and Drought Summary

Key Messages: 

Precipitation for the current water year is well-above normal, but not enough to overcome multi-year deficits.   

Snowpack remains below normal in the central and southern Cascades, Olympics, Blue Mountains, and the northeastern WA Rockies.