Late May Climate Outlook: Summer Outlook is Here

What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest?
Expectations for warmer and drier conditions continue statewide.
The Climate Prediction Center’s monthly outlook for June 2026 continues to show above normal temperatures are likely statewide. 

Early May Climate Outlook

Key Messages:

ENSO-neutral conditions have emerged in the Tropical Pacific, officially ending this past winter’s La Niña. 

A relatively rapid transition to El Niño conditions is likely by early summer, then El Niño conditions are likely to continue to strengthen into the fall.  

Early April Climate Outlook

Key Messages:

A transition to neutral ENSO conditions is likely this spring, then a transition to El Niño conditions is likely (>75% chance) by fall 2026. ENSO has very little influence on summer conditions in our region.  

Late March Climate Outlook

What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest?
Warmer and Drier than normal April conditions are likely in the interior West and small portions of Washington.
The Climate Prediction Center’s monthly outlook for April 2026 shows an increased likelihood that ridging over the western United States will bring drier and warmer than normal conditions to the region. 

Early March Climate Outlook

Key Messages:

In the short term, cooler and wetter than normal conditions look likely for the next week or two. 

Predictability is low for the March 1-month outlook as well as the 3-month March-May outlook.  

Late February Climate Outlook

What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest?
Wetter than normal conditions expected in March. A warm start to the month is likely.
The Climate Prediction Center’s monthly outlook for March 2026 shows 40-50% chance of above normal precipitation statewide. 

Early February Climate Outlook

Key Messages:

La Niña conditions remain in place, but a return to neutral conditions is expected by March.

The February CPC outlook indicates warmer than normal temperatures are most likely statewide with slightly elevated chances of wetter than normal conditions across the northern half of the state. 

Early January Climate Outlook

Key Messages

La Niña conditions remain in place, with a 75% chance of neutral conditions by January-March. El Niño conditions are becoming more likely in the extended outlook, with nearly equal chances of neutral or El Niño conditions for the June-August period and minimal chances of La Niña persisting.  

Late December Climate Outlook

What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest?
Wetter than normal conditions most likely January-March. Slightly elevated chance of cooler than normal temperatures January-March. 
The Climate Prediction Center’s monthly outlook for January 2026 shows good odds (40-50% chance) of wetter than normal conditions across most of the state. 

Early December Climate Outlook

Key Messages

La Niña conditions remain in place, likely returning to neutral conditions by January-March.

December’s outlook indicates a slight chance of wetter than normal conditions in eastern Washington, but high uncertainty overall.