Climate Matters: What to expect from this year’s wildfire season in the Northwest

Introduction
Wildfire becomes a part of life across much of the western US this time of year, and the Pacific Northwest is no exception. The smell of smoke from fires burning hundreds of miles away or the news alerts of fires threatening nearby communities can dominate our daily routines. 

Early July Climate Outlook

Key Messages:

El Niño has officially emerged in the tropical Pacific, and will continue to strengthen through the summer and into fall. 

The summer (July-September) outlook continues to indicate elevated chances of warmer than normal conditions statewide and drier than normal conditions across western Washington.  

June 2026 Drought and Streamflow Update

Key Messages: 

Statewide SNOTEL stations have all melted out. This occurred about 3 weeks earlier than normal. 

Streamflows on snowpack-fed rivers remain well below normal with some gauges reporting record low streamflows. 

June 2026 Climate Summary

Key Messages: 

Temperatures were 1-4°F above normal across much of the state, marking the 8th consecutive month with above normal statewide temperatures. 

The Olympics, Puget Sound, southern I-5 corridor and the Cascades were the warmest relative to normal. 

Climate Matters: How much water is in Washington’s snowpack?

Snowpack is an important source of water for Washington. Reservoirs also help store water from snowmelt, releasing it as needed throughout the dry season. This year’s drought has renewed conversations about the amount of water in our snowpack and reservoirs, and just how much we can rely on each for meeting water demand in the future. 

Early June Climate Outlook

Key Messages:

ENSO-neutral conditions are still present, but a transition to El Niño is expected very soon. El Niño is likely to continue to strengthen into the fall. 

The summer (June-August) outlook indicates elevated chances of warmer and drier than normal conditions.  

May 2026 Snowpack and Drought Summary

Key Messages: 

As of early June, the statewide snowpack has nearly melted out. Snowpack is 19% of median as of June 3rd, well below normal for this point in the season. 

May 2026 Climate Summary

Key Messages: 

Temperatures were 2-6°F above normal across the state, marking the 7th consecutive month with above normal statewide temperatures. 

The warmest temperatures relative to normal occurred in the eastern slopes of the Cascades and across central and northeastern Washington. 

Late May Climate Outlook: Summer Outlook is Here

What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest?
Expectations for warmer and drier conditions continue statewide.
The Climate Prediction Center’s monthly outlook for June 2026 continues to show above normal temperatures are likely statewide. 

Early May Climate Outlook

Key Messages:

ENSO-neutral conditions have emerged in the Tropical Pacific, officially ending this past winter’s La Niña. 

A relatively rapid transition to El Niño conditions is likely by early summer, then El Niño conditions are likely to continue to strengthen into the fall.