Climate Matters: What to expect from this year’s wildfire season in the Northwest

Introduction
Wildfire becomes a part of life across much of the western US this time of year, and the Pacific Northwest is no exception. The smell of smoke from fires burning hundreds of miles away or the news alerts of fires threatening nearby communities can dominate our daily routines. 

Early July Climate Outlook

Key Messages:

El Niño has officially emerged in the tropical Pacific, and will continue to strengthen through the summer and into fall. 

The summer (July-September) outlook continues to indicate elevated chances of warmer than normal conditions statewide and drier than normal conditions across western Washington.  

June 2026 Drought and Streamflow Update

Key Messages: 

Statewide SNOTEL stations have all melted out. This occurred about 3 weeks earlier than normal. 

Streamflows on snowpack-fed rivers remain well below normal with some gauges reporting record low streamflows. 

June 2026 Climate Summary

Key Messages: 

Temperatures were 1-4°F above normal across much of the state, marking the 8th consecutive month with above normal statewide temperatures. 

The Olympics, Puget Sound, southern I-5 corridor and the Cascades were the warmest relative to normal.