Early April Climate Outlook

By Jacob Genuise

Key Messages:

• A transition to neutral ENSO conditions is likely this spring, then a transition to El Niño conditions is likely (>75% chance) by fall 2026. ENSO has very little influence on summer conditions in our region. 
• Should they develop, El Niño conditions would tilt scales toward warmer and drier than normal conditions for winter 2026-2027.

• The 1-month April and 3-month April-June outlooks show elevated chances of warmer and drier than normal conditions, raising concerns for accelerated snowmelt and early drying of soils and wildfire fuels. 

• Summer seasonal projections show increased odds of warmer than normal summer temperatures.

La Niña advisory remains in place, but La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific continue to weaken. A return to neutral conditions is still expected in the near term. Neutral conditions are most likely to continue through the early summer, but there is a roughly 60% chance of a transition to El Niño conditions by the June-August period. El Niño conditions are likely (>75% chance) by fall 2026, and there will be more confidence in this forecast later this summer. El Niño conditions tend to tilt the scales toward warmer and drier winter conditions, but have a smaller impact on summer temperatures.  Seasonal models continue to hint toward elevated chances of warmer than normal summer conditions, but the precipitation outlook is less certain. 

For April, there are slightly elevated chances of both above normal temperatures (33-40% chance) and below normal precipitation (33-40% chance) across much of the state. Although this signal is not very strong, should these conditions materialize they would accelerate snowmelt and lead to more rapid onset of drought conditions this summer.

Climate Prediction Center

The 3-Month outlook for April through June shows similar conditions with elevated chances (40-50%) of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation (40-50%) nearly statewide. 

Climate Prediction Center