February 2025 Climate Outlook
What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest?
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Our weak La Niña persists this February.
La Niña conditions are still present according to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are running -0.6°C below normal in the Niño 3.4 region, which is an important indicator region for determining ENSO phases. In the far eastern Pacific, SSTs have warmed over the past 4 weeks and have returned to near normal. In the far western Pacific, and globally, SSTs continue to run well above normal.
Weak La Niña conditions are expected to persist in the short term, but there is a higher chance (66%) of ENSO Neutral conditions returning during the March-April-May period, according to the CPC. The latest ENSO models continue to point toward ENSO-neutral conditions through the summer of 2025 with about a 60-70% chance of neutral conditions from April-August 2025 (compared to a roughly 25-30% chance of La Niña conditions and a 1-15% chance of El Niño conditions during this same period). ENSO conditions along with many other factors are taken into account by the CPC to determine seasonal climate outlooks discussed below.
What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?
The CPC updated their 1-month temperature and precipitation outlooks on February 20th, and are predicting below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for the month of March 2025. This pattern is typical of a La Niña response with most La Niña years bringing above average precipitation and below average temperatures to our region. However, the CPC indicates only a modest 40-50% chance of below normal temperatures and 40-50% chance of above normal precipitation, indicating some uncertainty in these predictions.
The CPC’s 3-month outlook for March-April-May paints a similar story. There are modestly higher chances of below normal temperatures during this period with slightly better chances of cooler conditions in northern Washington (40-50%) than in southern Washington (33-40%). There are also modestly higher chances of above normal precipitation from March-May across the state with higher chances across northern and western Washington (40-50%) compared to southern and eastern Washington (33-40%).
