Late April 2025 Climate Outlook
What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest?
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
ENSO-neutral conditions have officially returned and are likely to continue through summer.
Sea surface temperatures in the Tropical Pacific continued to warm throughout March and have returned to near-normal. This indicates a shift back to ENSO-neutral conditions. Neutral conditions are expected to continue most likely through the summer according to ENSO models. Beyond this summer, there is currently around an 80% chance of either La Niña or ENSO-neutral conditions as we head into late autumn and early winter. There is currently only a low likelihood (around 20%) that we would see El Niño conditions emerge as we head into winter 2025.
What is expected for Washington in the coming months?
Low predictability is expected in May, followed by likely hot and dry conditions by late spring and early summer.
The CPCs one month outlook, released on April 17th, shows generally low predictability for temperature and precipitation. The is an indication of slightly increased chances of slightly drier than normal conditions across far SW Washington, but overall we have near equal chances of above, below, and normal conditions for both temperature and precipitation for the month of May.
The CPC’s 3-month outlook for May-June-July indicates growing consensus among seasonal climate models in a transition to drier and hotter than normal conditions as we head into early summer statewide. There is a slightly higher chance of drier than normal conditions across eastern Washington compared to the western half of the state during this time period and a slightly higher chance of above normal temperatures for the far southern third of the state.
Late spring temperatures play a crucial role in determining the health of snowpack and water resources as we head into the dry season, so it will be important to monitor these spring and early summer conditions closely.
