Late May Climate Outlook
What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest?
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
ENSO-neutral conditions likely continue through summer
ENSO-neutral conditions continue in the Tropical Pacific. Neutral conditions are expected to continue most likely through the summer according to ENSO models. Either ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions continue to be the most likely scenarios for winter 2025-26 with only around a 15% chance of El Niño conditions.
What is expected for Washington this Summer?
The summer outlook is here. Conditions are likely to be hotter and drier than normal statewide.
Warmer than normal conditions as expected for the month of June statewide, according to The CPCs one month outlook. The far southeast corner of the state has a slightly elevated chance of drier than normal conditions as well with low precipitation predictability for the rest of the state. As we enter early summer, June conditions will likely melt out our remaining non-glacial mountain snow.
The official CPC summer outlook (Jun-July-August) has also been released, and we are likely in for a hot and dry summer ahead. Conditions are likely to be warmer than normal (40-50% chance) across much of the state with a higher chance (50-60%) of above normal conditions across southeast Washington. Precipitation is likely to be below normal with a 40-50% chance of drier than normal conditions statewide.
