Late June Climate Outlook
What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest?
July – September is likely to be warmer and drier than normal
The CPCs one month outlook for July 2025 shows elevated chances of warmer and drier than normal conditions across the state. There is a 50-60% chance of above normal temperatures across the southeast corner of the state and a slightly lower chance (40-50%) of above normal temperatures in the rest of the state. Precipitation chances are most likely to be below normal statewide, but confidence is a bit lower in the precipitation outlook compared to temperature. There is a 40-50% chance of below normal precipitation in and east of the western Cascades foothills. Far western Washington, including Puget Sound, has only a 33-40% chance of below normal precipitation.
The CPCs three month outlook for July-August-September also depicts warmer and drier than normal conditions are likely statewide. Above normal temperature chances are particularly elevated with the majority of the state showing a 50-60% chance of above normal temperatures through the rest of summer and into early autumn. Above normal temperatures will likely continue to exacerbate drought conditions. Precipitation is only marginally likely to be below normal through this period with most of the state showing a 33-40% chance of below normal precipitation. The far eastern fringes of the state, including Spokane and Pullman, have a slightly higher chance (40-50%) of below normal precipitation from July-September.
ENSO-neutral conditions continue through summer
ENSO-neutral conditions continue through summer with an 82% chance that neutral conditions persist through at least August 2025. ENSO models show an 85-90% chance that either ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions return for winter 2025-26.