Mid July Climate Outlook
What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest?
Warmer and drier than normal conditions will likely persist through August
The CPCs one month outlook for August 2025 indicates elevated chances of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. There is a 60-70% chance of above normal temperatures across far eastern Washington. Those odds of warm conditions gradually decrease from east to west with a 40-50% chance of above normal conditions across western Washington. Precipitation, on the other hand, is only leaning slightly toward below normal conditions with a 33-40% chance of dry conditions across the western two thirds of the state and 40-50% chance of drier than normal conditions across the eastern third.
The CPCs three month outlook for August, September and October 2025 show less predictability in precipitation with equal chances of below, near, and above normal precipitation. As we transition into the wet season during the upcoming 3-month period, predicting the onset of fall rains becomes a challenge. This is especially true during neutral ENSO conditions which are known to make seasonal precipitation and temperature patterns harder to predict for the upcoming fall and winter. Temperatures are still slightly favored to be above normal from August-October with a 40-50% chance of above normal conditions for the majority of the state and 33-40% chance of warm conditions in the far northwest corner of the state.
ENSO-neutral conditions continue through summer and likely into fall.
ENSO-neutral conditions continue through summer. ENSO models show an 85-90% chance that either ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions return for winter 2025-26.