Early October Climate Outlook
A La Niña Advisory was issued by the Climate Prediction Center on October 9 indicating that La Niña conditions are currently in place. La Niña conditions are the most likely scenario now through December-January-February. This event is still likely to be weak and fairly short-lived with a 55% chance of a return to ENSO-neutral conditions by January-February-March.
The October outlook indicates uncertainty regarding temperatures, with equal chances (33.3% each) of below, near-normal, or above normal temperatures. For October precipitation, there are higher chances of above normal precipitation (40-50% chance) across all of Washington. This outlook is largely based on consensus among seasonal forecast models.
Similarly, the October-November-December outlook also shows fairly low predictability for temperature. Fall temperatures are uncertain, with equal chances of either below, near-normal, or above normal temperatures. Like the October monthly outlook, there are increased chances of higher than normal precipitation statewide. The odds are slightly higher (40-50%) for portions of eastern Washington compared to the rest of the state (33-40%).
