By Jacob Genuise
What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest?
Wetter than normal conditions expected in March. A warm start to the month is likely.
The Climate Prediction Center’s monthly outlook for March 2026 shows 40-50% chance of above normal precipitation statewide. Temperatures, on the other hand, show low predictability with only slightly elevated chances of below normal temperatures (33-40%) across the northwestern half of the state, largely due to any lingering impacts from our rapidly waning La Niña event.
Climate Prediction Center map of temperature (left) and precipitation (right) difference from normal for March 2026.
However, near-term models indicate that the first two weeks of March are likely to be warmer than normal. As of now the most likely scenario looks to be a warm start to the month followed by near-normal or slightly below normal temperatures to end the month along with generally wetter than normal conditions.
6-10 day outlook for temperatures (left) and precipitation (right).
For the 3-month period from March-May, predictability is low as we transition from our weak La Niña event over the next few weeks. There are equal chances of above, below, and near-normal temperature and precipitation for this period, as a result. Conditions during the spring period are often difficult to predict in our region.
Climate Prediction Center map of temperature (left) and precipitation (right) difference from normal for March-May 2026.
Looking toward summer 2026, seasonal models are showing a fairly strong signal for warmer than normal summer conditions with no strong insights into summer precipitation.
La Niña conditions are waning.
As of the middle of February, weak La Niña conditions are still present. However, sea surface temperatures in the Tropical Pacific have warmed rapidly over the past few weeks, and we are likely to see a transition to neutral conditions over the next several weeks. Long range projections continue to indicate that either neutral or El Niño conditions are likely in the summer and fall period with a much lower likelihood of La Niña redeveloping at this time.