By Jacob Genuise
Key Messages:
- In the short term, cooler and wetter than normal conditions look likely for the next week or two.
- Predictability is low for the March 1-month outlook as well as the 3-month March-May outlook.
- There is a 90% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions in the March-May period.
- There is an increased likelihood of warmer than normal summer (June-August) temperatures
A La Niña advisory remains in place, but La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific continue to weaken. A return to neutral conditions is still expected for the March-May period (90% chance). The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) recently updated its ENSO indices to better reflect background sea surface temperature warming. You can read more from the CPC about why this change was made and how it impacts ENSO monitoring.
1-month (March) outlook for temperature (left) and precipitation (right) in Washington State.
For the month of March, predictability for both temperatures and precipitation is low as we transition out of La Niña conditions. There are equal chances of above, below, or near normal temperatures and precipitation for the month.
3-month (March, April, and May) outlook for temperature (left) and precipitation (right) in Washington State.
The 3-Month outlook for March through May shows similarly low predictability with equal chances of above, below, or near normal temperatures and precipitation for the month.
Looking ahead to the summer period, the latest National Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecast indicates increased chances of warmer than normal summer conditions, especially across western Washington. Forecasts for summer precipitation are less certain at this time, but there are slightly elevated chances of below normal precipitation for the June-August period.