By Jacob Genuise
What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest?
Warmer and Drier than normal April conditions are likely in the interior West and small portions of Washington.
The Climate Prediction Center’s monthly outlook for April 2026 shows an increased likelihood that ridging over the western United States will bring drier and warmer than normal conditions to the region. Here in Washington, we are likely to be right on the edge of this ridging meaning conditions for the upcoming month will depend on whether this ridge ends up expanding northward or remains off to the south. As of now, the CPC outlook indicates slightly elevated chances (33-40%) of warmer and drier than normal conditions in far southeastern and southern Washington, respectively.
April 2026 1-month outlook for Temperature (left) and Precipitation (right)
For the 3-month period from April-June, chances of warmer and drier than normal spring conditions have increased. Given our well below normal snowpack, this does not bode well for hopes that a cool and wet spring would help slow spring snowmelt as much as possible ahead of summer. Should this outlook verify this spring, it would lead to faster than normal melting of our already low snowpack.
April-June outlook for temperature (left) and precipitation (right).
Looking toward summer 2026, seasonal models are still indicating that warmer than normal summer conditions are likely with a less certain outlook for summer precipitation.
La Niña conditions continue to weaken. El Niño increasingly likely to develop by late summer/fall
As of March 12, La Niña conditions are still present, but waning rapidly. Neutral conditions are expected within the next month. Seasonal ENSO models continue to show a growing chance of El Niño conditions developing through the summer and fall of this year. El Niño conditions tend to tilt our odds toward warmer and drier than normal winter conditions, which is something we will need monitor closely as we get closer to winter 2026-’27.