January 2025 Climate Outlook
What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest?
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): La Niña is here!
On January 9, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued a “La Niña Advisory” due to La Niña being present in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Over the last month, sea-surface temperature anomalies have remained below normal in the central and east-central tropical Pacific Ocean. There has also been some development of above normal sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific over the last month despite the status officially becoming La Niña. Below normal SSTs have strengthened below the surface of the ocean, however, and atmospheric conditions have reflected La Niña. The latest ENSO models are suggesting that La Niña will persist through the February-March-April period before potentially shifting back to neutral in the March-April-May period. The probability of La Niña during MAM is 39% compared to 60% for neutral conditions. In almost all scenarios, the event is expected to remain weak, and there can still be an influence on Washington’s average winter and spring conditions. La Niña is one of the many factors taken into account by the CPC outlooks highlighted below.
What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?
The CPC one month temperature outlook for February indicates higher chances of below normal temperatures across all of Washington, with the probabilities between 40 and 50% on the three-tiered scale for a majority of the state. The February precipitation outlook indicates higher chances of above normal precipitation across the state with the odds between 40 and 50% for the entire state.
The February-March-April (FMA) outlook is reflecting the typical La Niña influence on our weather. There’s between a 40 and 50% chance of below normal temperatures and between a 40 and 50% chance of above normal precipitation across the entire state.
