Early November Climate Outlook
A La Niña advisory is in place meaning that La Niña conditions are present in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This year’s La Niña is on track to be a fairly weak event, in line with forecasts made earlier in the season, and will likely return to neutral conditions by the January-March period (56% chance).
The Climate Prediction Center’s outlook for November indicates a 40-50% chance of wetter than normal conditions statewide indicating that our current wet pattern is likely to continue through the month. Warmer than normal conditions are also expected through the month of November with higher chances of warmer than normal conditions across eastern Washington (40-50% chance) than western Washington (33-40% chance).
The 3-Month outlook for November through January tells a similar story of wetter than normal conditions expected statewide (40-50% chance). The outlook for temperatures, on the other hand, has greater uncertainty with equal chances of above, near, or below normal temperatures statewide. Temperatures play a crucial role in determining our snowpack through the winter. Cool storms mean more precipitation falls as snow and can be stored as mountain snowpack, and cool conditions between storms helps to keep snowpack frozen. On the other hand, warm storms mean more precipitation falls as rain and warm conditions in between storms can cause snowpack to melt, even during the winter. Temperatures will be an important variable to watch throughout the wet season this year as we monitor water supply for next year.
