News | Washington State Climate Office

Mar 6, 2020 | Climate Matters, Forecasts

3 and 4-week 500 hPa Geopotential Height Predictions for WA

As presented previously in this newsletter, filling the gap between deterministic weather forecasts out about 10 days and probabilistic predictions on seasonal (multi-month) time scales is an active area of research for the meteorological community.

Dec 4, 2018 | Atmospheric and Oceanic Circulation Patterns, Climate Events, Climate Matters, Forecasts, Marine

The Return of Warm Water to the NE Pacific

The intense marine heat wave (MHW) of 2014-16 in the NE Pacific, aka the “Blob”, received a great deal of attention and deservedly so. When relatively warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) emerged in the Gulf of Alaska in late summer/early fall 2018, both those monitoring the North Pacific atmosphere ocean climate system, and the media, began speculating whether a new MHW might be developing.

Feb 9, 2017 | Climate Matters, Forecasts

Skill of Seasonal Weather Forecasts from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center

The last section of our newsletter features reproductions of monthly and seasonal weather forecasts for WA from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC). How good actually are these forecasts?
We analyzed an archive of past CPC temperature and precipitation seasonal forecasts, and corresponding observations, for the years of 1995-2015 in Washington State.

Oct 5, 2016 | Climate Matters, El Niño/La Niña and Global Climate Oscillations, Forecasts

Winter Preview: What can we expect?

Now that our nights are getting longer and that familiar fall chill is in the air, folks are beginning to wonder what to expect for the upcoming 2016-17 winter. The El Niño of winter 2015-16 has been long gone, and neutral ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) conditions took its place this past summer.

Feb 5, 2016 | Climate Matters, Forecasts

Experimental 3-4 Week Forecasts from NOAA/CPC

There are two basic types of meteorological forecasts. On shorter time scales, present atmospheric conditions can be used to predict spatial and temporal details in the evolution of the atmospheric flow and associated weather.

Oct 6, 2014 | Climate Matters, El Niño/La Niña and Global Climate Oscillations, Forecasts

Winter Preview: What Can We Expect?

As many of our readers are likely well aware, there is a high likelihood (between 60 and 65% chance) of a weak El Niño developing during the fall and winter. Sea-surface temperature anomalies are above normal throughout the equatorial Pacific Ocean at the time of this writing (more information in the Climate Outlook below), but the predicted El Niño has been slow to start.

Mar 10, 2014 | Climate Matters, Forecasts

The Quality of CFS Seasonal Winter Predictions for the Pacific Northwest

Seasonal weather predictions are based increasingly on global climate model output. They have been evaluated for the tropical Pacific and other very large (continental scale) regions, but less is known about the quality of these predictions for specific regions such as the Pacific Northwest.

Nov 12, 2010 | Climate Matters, Forecasts

On the Weather Forecasts made by the Old Farmer’s Almanac

One way to annoy many meteorologists is to suggest that the weather forecasts from the Old Farmer’s Almanac (OFA) are more skillful than those from the National Weather Service. I certainly share this peeve, and so on a lark some years ago, I decided to determine for myself whether the OFA forecasts for the Pacific Northwest had merit.