By Jacob Genuise
ENSO-neutral conditions are still very likely to continue through the summer and early fall according to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). Neutral conditions typically do not play a large role in determining our average summer weather, so the outlooks discussed below are determined mostly from seasonal forecast models.
The 1-month July outlook from the CPC points toward little relief in sight. Drier than normal conditions are expected statewide with the highest chances (40-50%) of dry conditions in northeastern and north central Washington and slight chances (33-40%) of dry conditions in the rest of Washington. Warmer than normal temperatures are also expected statewide with a 40-50% chance of warmer than normal temperatures across western and north central Washington, and a higher (60-70%) chance across eastern Washington.
1-month (July) outlook for precipitation (left) and temperature (right) in Washington State.
Similarly, the 3-Month outlook (July-August-September) also indicates that dry and warm conditions are likely to persist through the rest of summer and into early fall. There is a 33-40% chance that precipitation will be below normal across most of the state and a slightly higher chance (40-50%) of below normal precipitation in far eastern Washington. Above normal temperatures are most likely across central and southeastern Washington (50-60%) with a 40-50% chance of above normal temperatures in western Washington.
3-month summer (July-September) outlook for precipitation (left) and temperature (right) in Washington State.