By Jacob Genuise
Key Messages:
- El Niño continued to intensify in the tropical Pacific this month.
- Odds of a very strong El Niño event by this fall have increased since the last ENSO strength forecast from NOAA. There is now an 80%+ chance of a very strong event by the October-December period.
- The 1-month August outlook shows overall low predictability with slightly elevated chances of above normal temperatures statewide and drier than normal conditions across western Washington.
- The 3-month late summer outlook shows a higher 50-60% chance of above normal temperatures statewide and elevated chances of drier than normal conditions across northwestern Washington.
ENSO strength probability forecast through April 2027.
El Niño has continued to strengthen in the tropical Pacific. There is now over an 80% chance of a very strong El Niño developing during the October-December period, and virtually no chance of a La Niña or neutral conditions. El Niño events tend to increase our odds of warmer than normal and can make conditions drier than normal during the winter. These conditions increase our chance of having below normal spring snowpack. Despite the likelihood of a very strong event, it is not a guarantee that we will have warmer and drier than normal winter conditions. Only a small number of similarly strong historical El Niño events exist in the observed record, which limits our ability to draw direct comparisons.
1-month and 3-month Outlooks
1-month (August) outlook for temperature (left) and precipitation (right) in Washington State.
The 1-month outlook for August from the Climate Prediction Center shows slightly elevated chances of above normal temperatures statewide and below normal precipitation across western Washington. These outlooks are on a three-category scale, so white areas on the map depict areas with a roughly 33.3% chance of below, equal to, or above normal outcome. There is only a slightly elevated (33-40%) chance of these conditions, indicating that there is fairly low predictability for the upcoming month.
3-month (August, September, October) outlook for temperature (left) and precipitation (right) in Washington State.
The 3-month outlook shows higher confidence in the above normal temperatures statewide during the August-October period. There is a 50-60% chance of above normal temperatures statewide.
The precipitation outlook also shows increased chances (40-50%) of below normal precipitation across far northwestern Washington including the Olympic Peninsula and north Puget Sound.