Early July Climate Outlook

By Jacob Genuise

Key Messages:

• El Niño has officially emerged in the tropical Pacific, and will continue to strengthen through the summer and into fall. 

• The summer (July-September) outlook continues to indicate elevated chances of warmer than normal conditions statewide and drier than normal conditions across western Washington. 

• Warmer than normal conditions are particularly likely this summer with a 60-70% chance of such conditions across much of the state.

El Niño Conditions have officially emerged in the tropical Pacific. This El Niño event is still expected to strengthen during the summer and into the fall, and primarily impact our weather  this upcoming winter. There is now a nearly 90% chance of at least a strong El Niño developing during the October-January period, and virtually no chance of a La Niña or neutral conditions. On the whole, El Niño events tend to increase our odds of drier than normal and warmer than normal conditions during our winter months. This typically increases our odds of having below normal spring snowpack. However, it is important to remember that this is not always the case, and intrinsic year-to-year variability continues to be a larger factor in our winter conditions than ENSO alone. Nevertheless, ENSO is the best predictor we have of winter conditions, and currently it hints toward a possibly drier and warmer winter pattern. 

Climate Prediction Center

Summer Outlooks

The 1-month outlook for July from the Climate Prediction Center shows higher than normal chances for warmer than normal temperatures statewide, and less than normal precipitation across western Washington. These outlooks are on a three-category scale, so white areas on the map depict areas with a roughly 33.3% chance of below, equal to, or above normal outcome. There is a 50-60% chance of warmer than normal conditions across the entire state in July. A slightly elevated (33-40%) chance of drier than normal conditions exists in a line from the Okanogan Valley toward Dallesport and Mount Hood. There is a higher chance (40-50%) of drier than normal conditions across far northwestern Washington including much of the Olympic Peninsula where dry conditions also expanded this past month. 

Climate Prediction Center

The 3-month outlook also shows warmer and drier than normal conditions are favored for the summer (July-August) period. Confidence in the temperature outlook continues to be higher than for precipitation. Temperatures show a 60-70% chance of being above normal for this period across nearly the entire state, with slightly lower odds in the far northeast corner of Washington. A 40-50% chance of below normal precipitation totals during July-September exists for north Puget Sound and the central and northern Olympic Peninsula. 

Climate Prediction Center

We continue to be concerned about expansion in drought extent and severity across the state this summer, should these outlooks verify through the rest of the season.