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A Review of Winter 2014-2015

The summer and fall 2014 predictions for the winter of 2014-15 were favoring warm and dry conditions for WA State based mostly on the expectation of moderate El Niño development. The El Niño was late to develop, so how did the winter play out? 

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Washington State Drought 2015

Narrative updated 5/15/15
Reports updated weekly through Sept 24, 2015
A record warm rainy season (October through March) in WA State has caused the majority of our precipitation to fall as rain rather than snow in the mountains. 

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Heavy Rain on January 4-5

Very heavy rain fell in western WA State on 4-5 January 2015. The 24-hour precipitation totals for the Pacific Northwest from 4 am (12 UTC) Sunday 4 Jan through 4 am Monday 5 Jan from NOAA are shown in Figure 1. 

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Clouds in Washington State in Winter

Judy Garland was quoted to have said, “Behind every cloud is another cloud”. The residents of Washington state can appreciate that statement during winter. A map of the mean number of cloudy days in January for the US is shown in Figure 1, and indeed the Pacific Northwest is the cloudiest part of the country, with only a few regions around the Great Lakes reaching the values observed across Washington, Oregon and much of Idaho. 

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Winter Preview: What Can We Expect?

As many of our readers are likely well aware, there is a high likelihood (between 60 and 65% chance) of a weak El Niño developing during the fall and winter. Sea-surface temperature anomalies are above normal throughout the equatorial Pacific Ocean at the time of this writing (more information in the Climate Outlook below), but the predicted El Niño has been slow to start. 

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