Climate Matters: How Might El Niño Affect Washington This Winter?  

The past week’s cooler and wetter weather comes as a stark reminder that summer has begun to make room for fall here in the Pacific Northwest. With this seasonal shift, some of us are beginning to turn our attention to the upcoming winter, as a strong and potentially historic El Niño event continues to intensify in the tropical Pacific Ocean. 

Early September Climate Outlook

Key Messages:

El Niño continues to intensify in the tropical Pacific. 

We are virtually guaranteed to have a very strong El Niño continue through this winter. Read a more detailed write up of possible impacts in our Climate Matters piece.  

September 2026 Drought and Streamflow Update

Key Messages: 

Streamflows in mountain basins continue to run below to extremely below normal. Some stations in the Olympics and western Cascades have seen temporary boosts in streamflow thanks to beneficial rainfall in early September.  

August and Summer 2026 Climate Summary

Key Messages: 

Statewide temperatures were above normal in August.
Temperatures were warmest relative to normal in the Olympics, eastern slopes of the Cascades, and in the Blue Mountains.
Precipitation was well below normal for most of the state in August. 

Climate Matters: A Wildfire Note From WA DNR

Last fall, I stood on a hillside east of White Salmon overlooking the Columbia River Gorge.
Below me was the burn scar from the Burdoin Fire, an 11,000-acre wildfire that had swept through the Gorge just months earlier, destroying 45 structures and threatening hundreds more. 

Early August Climate Outlook

Key Messages:

El Niño continued to intensify in the tropical Pacific this month. 

Odds of a very strong El Niño event by this fall have increased since the last ENSO strength forecast from NOAA. 

August 2026 Drought and Streamflow Update

Key Messages: 

Streamflows in mountain basins continue to run below to extremely below normal due to poor snowpack and dry summer conditions. 

Water supply forecasts have remained relatively unchanged, with continued expectations of well below normal summer water supply for all major rivers besides the Columbia.  

July 2026 Climate Summary

Key Messages: 

Statewide temperatures were above normal, marking the 9th consecutive month with above normal statewide temperatures. 

Temperatures were +2-4°F above normal across the eastern slopes of the Cascades and across much of eastern Washington.  

Climate Matters: What to expect from this year’s wildfire season in the Northwest

Introduction
Wildfire becomes a part of life across much of the western US this time of year, and the Pacific Northwest is no exception. The smell of smoke from fires burning hundreds of miles away or the news alerts of fires threatening nearby communities can dominate our daily routines. 

Early July Climate Outlook

Key Messages:

El Niño has officially emerged in the tropical Pacific, and will continue to strengthen through the summer and into fall. 

The summer (July-September) outlook continues to indicate elevated chances of warmer than normal conditions statewide and drier than normal conditions across western Washington.