November 2024 Climate Outlook
What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest?
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Neutral ENSO conditions, La Niña likely by late fall/early winter
According to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), ENSO-neutral conditions are still present in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Water Year in Review!
We recently held our annual Water Year 2024 Recap & 2025 Outlook Meeting. As a refresher, we often look at our climate through the lens of the “water year”, which goes from October 1st through September 30th, as opposed to the usual calendar year.
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Study Review: Trends in Flooding for Washington State
As we head into the flood season we thought we would dig up a USGS study from a few years back that took a look at past trends in floods (full citation below).
Read moreSee More Drought with C-MOR Drought Reporting
The Condition Monitoring Observer Reports on Drought (CMOR-Drought) is a collaborative effort by the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC), USDA Climate Hubs, and NOAA National Integrated Drought Information Systems (NIDIS) to document drought impacts across the nation since 2018.
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Heat Waves: Heat-related illness (HRI) Prevention and Adaptation
With the hotter conditions in early July across the Pacific Northwest we’ve received a lot of questions about trends in heat waves. Past research from OWSC has shown that daytime heat waves — which we defined as 3 consecutive days above the 99th percentile — do not yet show a statistically significant trend across western Washington and western Oregon.
Read moreUpwelling Winds Along the Coast
Jack Barth and collaborators have published a recent journal article entitled “Widespread and increasing near-bottom hypoxia in the coastal ocean off the United State Pacific Northwest”. This article shows that ocean oxygen concentrations have tended to decline over the historical record, with the summer of 2021 in particular featuring large areas with values low enough to be harmful to many marine animals.
Read moreFourth PNW Water Year Impacts Assessment Released
The fourth Pacific Northwest (PNW) Water Year Impacts Assessment, released in March, is a collaborative effort between water managers and scientists at the Office of the Washington State Climatologist, the Climate Impacts Group, Oregon Climate Service, Idaho Department of Water Resources, and the NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS).
Read moreSnow and Water Interactive Maps from the Natural Resources Conservation Service
As discussed above in this edition of our newsletter, the last week of February into March of 2024 featured some substantial snowfall in the mountains of Washington state. It has been heartening to watch the recent improvement in the snowpack – which can be thought of as out of the intensive care unit but not fully healed – and towards that end we have been making use of a relatively new application hosted by the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) of the U.S.
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ENSO’s Effects on Snow Water Equivalent over the Years
We trust that most everybody interested in the climate variability of Washington state is already aware that El Niño conditions are present in the tropical Pacific. At the very least, discussions of the prospects for the winter of 2023-24 during the last few months have generally included this element.
Read morePlant Hardiness Zones for Washington State
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently released a new plant hardiness zone map (PHZM). The zones are based on the average annual extreme minimum temperature during the years of 1991 through 2020.
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